Expected Goals: The story of how data conquered football and changed the game forever

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Its/meaning resistance is explained by the fact that data comes along and it’s a different way of interpreting football. The clubs that parse the data best will, if the early years of the digital era have illustrated anything, make more good decisions or, at the very least, fewer bad ones. Moneyball was the breakthrough in baseball across the pond and quickly adopted, but football is another story. This could be based on the number of games or shots taken but it’s also important to consider the number of actual goals against the expected goals. Expected goals describes how Ram Mylvaganam started ProZone, one of the first companies to use video for game encodings.

He charts the data revolution in football, the way statistical analysis has become central to how clubs operate. The birth of the internet saw data move into football as suddenly there was the possibility of analysing every incident on the football pitch with companies evolving the process evermore over a short space of time. The Chalke History Festival announces a new name, new look, and tons for history buffs to get their teeth into! Also, I don’t think I’m any more clued up about the specifics of the data that “conquered” the game than I was before reading this book.We are all quite protective of the way that we enjoy the sport and secretly, deep down, we think the way we enjoy it is the ‘right’ way to enjoy it.

It has an easy flowing narrative and describes the various behind the scenes things that happen while running a football club and this might be enough to read the book were it not the fact that it falls short of the goal espoused in its title. A truly fascinating account of football's data revolution that places the individuals responsible front and centre of the story, Expected Goals charts the transformation of the game in the last two decades as algorithms and information have redefined tactics, player selection and the will to win. Tippett provides good detail on how bettors can analyse xG stats to inform their betting throughout the book, such as the fact that it not only can it be used to predict the winner of a soccer match but also which player might score or assist a goal.I didn't expect any math of formulas per se, but maybe more elaborate definitions followed by concrete examples would have sufficed. There’s the incredible story of the Ivy League academic Chris Anderson, who moved to England to put his ideas about a data-driven approach into practice and briefly became the managing director for Coventry City. The authors should have made effort to speculate at least how various data points were used and how insight was acquired. However, how clubs work with all the "newly" available data is so well kept secrets that it wasn't really a theme in the book.

The company's foundational metric - the piece of information it is looking for from a game - is known by the slightly uncomfortable anglicism of packing. Unfortunately for me, making sweeping declarations with no proof does not cut it, without evidentiary rules you can claim anything. He scored seven goals in Brighton’s first season in the Premier League, helped keep them up and has become an integral member of a Brighton side that currently lie sixth in the league.Glass’s Aberdeen side were profligate in front of goal and leaky at the back, but I imagine the data league table made probably put a good sheen on things as they were a team creating chances and not conceding many albeit they were high percentage chances inevitably put away by the opposition as we found ourselves on a string of 1-0 defeats or rather uncreditable draws. Smith’s work as a soccer correspondent for NYT has always been infused by a perspective that goes beyond the field, situating the sport in a wider cultural context. The writing itself was fast paced but with the odd 'couple of dozen' Americanisms thrown in as a nod to his main employers, along with introductions I associate most with US journalistic profiles*.